Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 8-18-14

Exporters mostly win.  Good news in Iraq and Ukraine may temper markets, but there are still a number of geopolitical risks in the mix.  Watch for EU action on deflation.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 8-15-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.5% -4.77%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.2% 2.47%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 0 -0.1% 2.90%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 5 0.9% -0.64%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.3% -2.69%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 8-11-14

Importers gaining in most currencies as markets move to dollars and gold.  Fear of Russian self-imposed sanctions doing damage to the European recovery combined with Islamic State (IS) gains and continued fighting in Syria and Gaza lead to risk aversion.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 8-8-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 1 0.4% -4.21%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 1 0.2% 2.63%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 5 0.2% 2.97%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 4 0.3% -1.50%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.6% -3.03%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 8-4-14

Importers sweep the week, which is not surprising given last week’s data and geopolitical action.  During times of stress, investors move to “safe havens” such as dollars and gold, which increases the value of dollars and benefits importers.  For this week, Gaza appears to be winding down, though that situation is extremely volatile.  The Ukrainian government appears to be making gains against separatists, but Russia is running “military exercises” on the border, potentially preparing for invasion.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 8-1-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 1.3% -4.61%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 1.5% 2.39%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 4 0.5% 2.74%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 3 0.6% -1.88%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 1 0.9% -2.42%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-28-14

US GDP on Wednesday and Nonfarm payrolls on Friday.  Gaza ceasefire has failed, maintaining regional uncertainty.  Ukrainian officials claim that they are making gains in the East.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-25-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.7% -5.90%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.2% 0.93%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 3 0.4% 2.19%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 2 0.6% -2.48%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.5% -3.38%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-21-14

Importers gain as Ukraine and Gaza crises cause investors to move to safe haven assets such as dollars, gold, and bonds.  The movement retracted some by Friday, but markets are trigger happy for a reason to leave riskier assets.  The ruble is suffering as the world waits to see if Europe adds to US sanctions.  It could get a lot worse for Russia if Ukraine gets further out of control.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-18-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.4% -5.16%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 1 0.4% 1.10%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 2 0.6% 1.80%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 1 0.2% -3.10%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 1 -0.1% -3.89%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-14-14

Portuguese banks reminding people of the fragility of European markets, though no real damage occurred.  Mixed messages from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and markets in general make conditions for a market moving shock ripe.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-11-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.4% -5.53%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 0.8% 0.78%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 1 0.0% 1.18%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 0 0.2% -3.27%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.7% -3.75%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-7-14

An upbeat nonfarm payroll report ended the week nicely.  Worries over a new US recession have been temporarily abated.  The GDP report on July 30th will settle the matter.  Ukraine looks to finish off the Russian Nationalist rebellion this week after making gains.  Revenge killings between Israel and Palestine are ratcheting up tensions in the region.  The new caliphate in Syria / Iraq is causing problems, hopefully that is brought under control soon.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-4-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.7% -5.15%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 3 -0.3% -.07%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 0.4% 1.14%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 4 -0.5% -3.45%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.8% -2.99%

Thanks,

Damon