Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-21-14

Importers gain as Ukraine and Gaza crises cause investors to move to safe haven assets such as dollars, gold, and bonds.  The movement retracted some by Friday, but markets are trigger happy for a reason to leave riskier assets.  The ruble is suffering as the world waits to see if Europe adds to US sanctions.  It could get a lot worse for Russia if Ukraine gets further out of control.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-18-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.4% -5.16%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 1 0.4% 1.10%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 2 0.6% 1.80%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 1 0.2% -3.10%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 1 -0.1% -3.89%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-14-14

Portuguese banks reminding people of the fragility of European markets, though no real damage occurred.  Mixed messages from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and markets in general make conditions for a market moving shock ripe.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-11-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.4% -5.53%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 0.8% 0.78%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 1 0.0% 1.18%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 0 0.2% -3.27%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.7% -3.75%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 7-7-14

An upbeat nonfarm payroll report ended the week nicely.  Worries over a new US recession have been temporarily abated.  The GDP report on July 30th will settle the matter.  Ukraine looks to finish off the Russian Nationalist rebellion this week after making gains.  Revenge killings between Israel and Palestine are ratcheting up tensions in the region.  The new caliphate in Syria / Iraq is causing problems, hopefully that is brought under control soon.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 7-4-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.7% -5.15%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 3 -0.3% -.07%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 0.4% 1.14%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 4 -0.5% -3.45%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.8% -2.99%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 6-16-14

Volatility returns with geopolitical action.  Deterioration of natural gas talks between Ukraine and Russia combined with heavy arms being “donated” to separatists ups the ante.  With Iraq looking increasing fragile, oil markets, and now stock markets are reacting.  GBP rocketed up as speculation builds that the Bank of England will be the first to tighten policy.  The Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday to set policy, the announcement is Wednesday.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 6-13-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 2 -1.0% -6.01%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.6% 1.95%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 0.8% 1.54%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 2 -0.9% -2.28%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.7% -3.44%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 6-2-14

A choppy week, with AUD particularly volatile.  Successful elections in the Ukraine are raising hopes, but it is rare for an insider to make necessary radical changes.  China is throwing its weight around, bullying Vietnam and the Philippines over uninhabitable islands.  While I believe the Chinese government will reign it in before it gets to a conflict, they may have a harder time controlling nationalistic sentiment at home.  Executives are reducing Chinese exposure as a precaution.  In the US, Nonfarm Payroll (NFP and unemployment) is Friday.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-30-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.9% -4.71
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.3% 1.79%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 3 0.2% 1.18%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 0 0.6% -0.86%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.1% -3.42%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 5-27-14

Importers nearly sweep the week.  There has been a lot of talk about volatility being low across many asset classes.  This would be a good time to hedge longer term risks as the price of options will be lower than normal.  Are we due for a rude awakening?

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-23-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 1 2.0% -3.19
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 1 0.1% 2.08%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 2 0.6% 1.0%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 0 -0.2% -1.53%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.4% -3.19%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 5-19-14

Importers nearly sweep the week.  Investors are waking up to the fact that Euro peripheral debt is not the same as US or German bonds.  A small sell-off in Greece led to a wider rout and some people talking about “contagion”.  Violence in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia adding to volatility.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  (We are starting from scratch, all data from beginning of year.) The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-16-14 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.1% -5.24
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 0.4% 2.13%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 1 0.8% 0.37%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 0 0.9% -1.29%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 3 -0.1% -3.63%

Thanks,

Damon