Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 5-25-15

Importers nearly sweep the week as currency markets begin to seriously consider a Grexit and a US interest rate increase.  Even though the Greek government has stated that it cannot make its June payments, it seems that the drama may be kicked to September as a “secret” deal has been leaked.  As long as there is a shred of a chance that the EU will bail out Greece, the markets will remain sidelined, but expect a frenzy of activity once a solution is announced, either way.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-22-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 1.2% 3.37%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 1.7% 4.77%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 2.4% 8.08%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 0 -0.7% -0.54%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 1.5% 0.98%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 5-18-15

Exporters adding some breathing room, nearly sweeping the week.  Expect some chop as the Greek crisis enters (hopefully) the final two weeks.  Rumors abound that a deal has been discussed, but I am not excited. Oil prices continue to move other markets, but it looks like the current price spike will be short lived.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-15-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -1.2% 2.12%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -1.0% 3.08%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 5 -1.3% 5.66%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 0 0.1% 1.23%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.4% -0.57%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 5-11-15

Mixed results as markets take into account surging oil prices, the good US jobs report, UK election results, and Greece.  The dollar has lately been providing relief to exporters since oil prices have gone up and the Federal Reserve has pushed out an interest rate hike.  This seems to be a temporary trend, as markets price in other events.

In the UK David Cameron surprised pollsters by staying on for another term.  Now there is all this talk of “Brexit” or British exit from the European Union.  He has vowed for a referendum and he has some leverage to gain concessions.  While polling suggests that the UK will remain, the fact that they got the election so wrong does not bode well.  It looks like it will be in late 2016, so no reason to stress just yet.

The real threat of exit, Greece, is still limping along, with no major announcements.  Markets are starting to turn the screws to force someone’s hand.  First, 2 year Greek bonds are yielding over 20%, with Spanish and Italian bond spreads widening versus German debt.  The Greek stock market has declined and other European markets are unstable.  Greece is expected to make its IMF payment tomorrow, and be ok for May, but time is running out.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-8-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.0% 3.39%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 0.0% 4.08%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 4 -0.2% 6.97%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 4 -0.3% 1.11%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.2% -0.13%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 5-4-15

Exporters sweep the week, as markets take pause on the weaker than expected US GDP.  Economists fault a terrible winter and a more valuable dollar hurting exporters.  The Federal Reserve extended their guidance on when they will raise interest rates to later this year, siting the aberrant quarter.  This move temporarily supports exporters as the Fed is poised to raise interest rates, which will only increase the value of the dollar.  A delay here will slow the rise.  The jobs report on Friday will move markets if it deviates from expectations.

The other big factor weighing on markets, Greece, seems to be making slow progress.  The talks are allegedly working to be completed by Wednesday, to be presented to euro-area finance ministers on May 11th to guarantee funds for an IMF payment on May 12th.  Hold on to your hats!

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 5-1-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 3 -1.6% 3.36%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 3 -0.3% 4.05%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 3 -3.2% 7.23%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 3 -2.9% 1.44%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 2 -0.1% -0.35%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 3-30-15

Importers sweep the week, reversing nearly all of the gains that exporters made last week.  Nothing has fundamentally changed, the trend will continue to be in importer’s favor for the foreseeable future.

Greece needlessly continues to drag talks along.  With big payments due in April, funds leaving the banking system, and (this may be a shocker) Greek citizens continuing to not pay taxes the government is struggling to pay pensions and workers.  I expect the government to finally bow to European pressure in the next few weeks and get the extension funding needed to last most of the summer.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 3-27-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 2.3% 6.42%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 0 1.0% 8.30%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 0.8% 10.45%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 0 0.9% 5.10%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.3% 0.12%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 3-23-15

Exporters sweep the week in dramatic fashion.  The Federal Reserve talked about raising interest rates in the near term but reduced their long term expectations.  This changed the calculus of how fast the Fed might raise rates which in turn lowered the long term value of the dollar relative to other currencies.  While markets digest these new scenarios this will be a brief respite for exporters, but the general trend remains the same: stronger dollar.

Greece continues to clown while their economy is in shambles.  Calling for World War II reparations from the country that ultimately authorizes the financing is not a good negotiating strategy.  With the creditors holding all of the cards and Greek citizens moving money out Greece, how long can they hold out?  An emergency meeting of Euro zone finance ministers on the 27th might seal Greece’s fate, though they are likely to provide the minimum assistance necessary to keep things limping along.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 3-20-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 1 -2.1% 4.13%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -1.9% 7.28%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 0 -2.7% 9.60%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 0 -0.7% 4.23%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -1.3% -0.19%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 3-16-15

Importers gain in all currencies except the Australian dollar, which had a minor rebound.   All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen.  Will they commit to raising interest rates sooner than predicted?  The stock markets are already moving on the notion that rate increases are coming sooner rather than later.  When rates increase this will increase the gains for importers and losses for exporters.  The announcement is scheduled for 2 pm ET on Wednesday.

After a week of missing in action, Russian dictator and friend of the blog Vladimir Putin had a public meeting today.  This kyboshed a number of conspiracy theories ranging from health problems to a coup.  I am guessing that the news is good for the Russian economy, though I’m not sure if that will change its plummeting trajectory.

Greece is facing a liquidity crunch, paying the newly named “Brussels Group” (the Troika plus the European Stability Mechanism) with pension funds and EU farm subsidies.  They claim they can get by, but for how long?  A continuing fight with Germany is only hardening positions, it looks like Greece will only be able to change vocabulary and not actual terms.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 3-13-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.1% 6.24%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 2 1.1% 9.11%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 3 1.2% 12.34%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 2 1.8% 5.01%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 3 0.1% 1.11%

Thanks,

Damon