Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 2-23-15

Mixed results as markets determine the impact of the Greek drama deescalation and the cease fire in Ukraine.  The leftist Greek government finally backed down from the edge, basically gaining nothing and having to back track on election promises.  They will continue to implement the hated austerity policies in exchange for a four month extension.  While the problem of a Grexit is not resolved, it is clear that they want to stay in the Euro zone.

It seems that the cease fire is tenuously working, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine temporarily on hold.  This allows for the currency crisis to resurface and Gazprom to renew natural gas cutoffs.  The IMF helped Ukraine with a package last month, will it be enough to prevent an economic collapse?

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

 

Currency Week Ending 2-20-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 1 -1.5% 3.47%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 2 -0.4% 6.52%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 0.2% 6.15%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 2 -0.7% 0.59%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 0.5% -0.72%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 2-16-15

Exporters sweep the week as global tensions ease.  The cease fire in Ukraine is holding up and the European Union may have some relief for Greece.  Keep your fingers crossed.

Here in Boston, I don’t know about you, but I can use some more snow!

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

 

Currency Week Ending 2-13-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.1% 4.96%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 1 -0.5% 6.91%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 0 -0.4% 5.96%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 1 -0.6% 1.37%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.6% -1.21%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 2-9-15

There are too many big factors moving markets, the result is chop as many wait for important events to unfold.  Last week, Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB) basically told Greek leaders that they respect their election results, but that does not change the deal made by previous governments.  The ECB then pulled the plug on liquidity by denying Greek banks the use of Greek debt as collateral starting at the end of February.  While this can be reversed, this is a a major deadline in the drama, as it has accelerated bank withdrawals as Greeks rightly fear their Euros are not safe.  Greek leaders have a confidence vote based on their plans on Wednesday.  Everyone expects them to pass, but one can never count on Greek politicians.  On Sunday, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras made a speech to parliament doubling down on their plan to end austerity and not accept any additional debt.  This caused British Prime Minister David Cameron to call a special meeting of European finance ministers to plan for a possible Greek exit (Grexit) from the Euro zone.  He later said “That would create real instability.”

The war in Ukraine is on a dangerous course, with the US government expected to provide defensive arms in the case that this round of peace talks fail.  It seems that there is no good outcome if the peace talks fail.  Either escalating war or a failed state conquered by Russia.  Who is next on the list?  Expect sanctions on Russia to ratchet up if peace talks fail.  The ruble is already hurting, but one would have to be brave to buy them now.

The only good news (if you are an importer) is that the US economy posted very strong employment numbers last week.  This solidifies the US as the only economy that is actually growing, with consumers feeling better and unemployed people getting jobs.  This supports a long term trend of the dollar becoming more valuable relative to other currencies.  Given that the ECB and Japan are basically printing money, expect this trend to last.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

 

Currency Week Ending 2-6-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 3 0.5% 5.01%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exporters Win! 0 -0.4% 7.41%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 0 0.1% 6.34%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 0 -1.1% 2.18%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 0 1.3% -0.63%

Thanks,

Damon

PeopleHedge Partners with UCLA Anderson MBA Team to Develop Market Entry Strategy

For Immediate Release

PeopleHedge has entered a consulting partnership with a team of M.B.A. candidates at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management

Boston, Massachusetts – February 2, 2015

PeopleHedge, a startup with the mission of helping global companies hedge against foreign currency fluctuations, has accelerated its U.S. market entry by entering a consulting partnership with a team of M.B.A. students at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management. The team will help the Boston-based venture develop a strategic and scalable plan for entering the domestic market.

With combined backgrounds in finance, technology, marketing, media and product development, the five-person UCLA team brings a wealth of business experience to PeopleHedge. Collectively, the team members have launched startups, structured mergers and acquisitions and marketed consumer product goods and top music artists. They have worked for companies like Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Nestle, Microsoft, Tesla, J.D. Power and Associates and The Wall Street Journal.

The team members are: Denis Bandera-Duplantier, Ryan Kum, Leslie Kwoh, Naoki Osada and James Yin.

“Disruption is coming to the business of foreign exchange, and we are excited to work with a company that is on the frontier of this industry evolution,” said Bandera-Duplantier.

The group also brings a unique global perspective, having lived and worked abroad in countries like China, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom.

PeopleHedge will be consulting with the team over the course of a 20-week period. As part of the project, the team will be conducting primary market research along the western corridor, focusing mainly on California, where import/export business is particularly heavy.

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 2-2-15

Mixed week as markets try to determine the effects of the Greek election and European quantitative easing.  Greek finance minister Varoufakis has rejected any more loans for Greece, after showing that over 80% goes to pay debt holders and not help citizens.  He is on a dog and pony show around Europe to try and convince individual states to help write down debt.  It may be a moot point as Erkki Liikanen has made it clear that with out a deal at the end of February, the European Central Bank will no longer be able to support the Greek banking system.  This will cause banks to collapse and force Greece out of the Euro.  Who will flinch first?  Uncertainty equals volatility.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

 

Currency Week Ending 1-30-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 2 1.3% 4.53%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 4 0.9% 7.79%
Euro (EUR) Exporters Win! 0 -1.1% 6.26%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Exporters Win! 0 -0.2% 3.29%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -1.1% -1.94%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 1-26-15

Big changes.  First, Switzerland decoupled their currency from the Euro, allowing it rise over 15% in one day.  This shocker put a lot of pressure on those that borrowed Swiss francs and made loans in other currencies, especially Poland.  Next, the European Central Bank (ECB) launched a quantitative easing (QE) program that basically prints euros and buys government debt.  As it did in the US, QE pushes interest rates down, which decreases the value of the currency.  Euros are on sale for at least a year!  Last, but not least, Greece elected an anti-austerity party that vows to negotiate a new debt regime.  Will the ECB, IMF, and the European Commission blink or basically eject Greece from the Union?  Uncertainty equals volatility.  US based importers win because this makes a dollar more valuable and therefore imports become less expensive.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

(Weekly change reflects two weeks)

Currency Week Ending 1-23-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 1 2.8% 3.25%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 3 4.4% 6.85%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 3 4.5% 7.34%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 3 0.8% 3.49%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Importers Win! 1 -0.3% -0.87%

Thanks,

Damon

Weekly Importer / Exporter Analysis 1-12-15

Importers basically sweep the week, as the dollar gains in value over most currencies.  Fears of Greek elections, but more so of European deflation are putting downward pressure on the value of Euros.  Markets expect quantitative easing to be launched at the January 22nd meeting of the European Central Bank.  This is just three days prior to the Greek election, so they might punt until their next meeting.  In either case, look for Euros to continue a downward trend until Greece and deflation are solved.

Other US economic data for this week is here.

Who won the battle last week, between the USD and five currencies?  The perspective is strictly from America, so if against the Aussie Dollar, United States importers won, that also means Australian exporters won as well.  I am changing the sign convention: negative percentage changes mean that exporters have the advantage while positive numbers show the advantage for importers.

Currency Week Ending 1-9-15 Weeks in a Row Weekly Change YTD Change
Australian Dollar (AUD) Importers Win! 0 0.7% 0.44%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Importers Win! 1 1.8% 2.48%
Euro (EUR) Importers Win! 3 0.9% 2.83%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) Importers Win! 1 0.5% 2.67%
Japanese Yen (JPY) Exporters Win! 0 -0.1% -0.5%

Thanks,

Damon